MPC Markets have asked 3 LLMs for their cup picks. We have then fed the results and Macquarie Quant picks into a summary and this is what it summarised
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This is just for fun, MPC takes no responsibility for any money won or lost using these AI picks
Have a great Cup Day readers!
Combined Picks
Here are 3 smart, high-value bets for the 2025 Melbourne Cup, synthesized from the AI consensus across all models (Macquarie Quant, PunterGPT, Perplexity, ChatGPT 5, and your detailed doc). All picks are proven 3200m stayers, wet-track suited, ideally drawn (4–13), and backed by elite trainer/jockey combos.
1. WIN BET
#14 HALF YOURS @ $10–$12 (fixed)
- Why:
- Only horse with a Caulfield Cup win on Soft 6 → proven elite stayer in the wet.
- 52kg + barrier 8 = perfect lightweight/gate combo (3 Cup wins from gate 8 since 2005).
- Galileo x stamina dam → bred for 3200m.
- McEvoy (2nd in 2023 with 50kg) + Melham (3rd in 2021) → connections peaking.
- Verdict: The clear horse to beat on form, weight, and track conditions.
Bet: $50 win @ $11 = $550 return
2. EACH-WAY BET
#6 PRESAGE NOCTURNE @ $15 / $4.50 (place)
- Why:
- French 3100m G2/G3 winner on Soft → exact profile of 2022 Cup winner Gold Trip.
- Barrier 9 = 2015 Cup winner (Prince of Penzance).
- Botti brothers + Pasquier = 9 x 3000m+ G1 wins between them.
- All models love it: #2 in your doc, Perplexity winner, ChatGPT EW pick.
- Verdict: Best international chance; massive place value.
Bet: $30 EW @ $15/$4.50 = $900 win / $165 place
3. TRIFECTA BOXES (2 bets)
A. 4-HORSE BOX TRIFECTA (24 combos)
#5, #6, #9, #14
- Absurde (Mullins/McEvoy + barrier 4)
- Presage Nocturne (French mudlark)
- Half Yours (lightweight Caulfield Cup winner)
- Onesmoothoperator (Ebor + MV Gold Cup on Soft)
Flexi 50% = $12 for 100% payout (If any 3 fill Top-3: ~$1,200–$2,000+ payout)
B. 5-HORSE BOX TRIFECTA (120 combos)
#5, #6, #9, #10, #14 (Adds #10 Valiant King – Waller/McNeil, 51kg, Bart Cummings winner, barrier 10)
Flexi 20% = $24 for 100% payout (Covers 120 combos – pays ~$800–$1,500+ if any 3 in frame)
SUMMARY OF BETS
Bet | Selection | Stake | Est. Return |
Win | #14 Half Yours | $50 | $550 |
EW | #6 Presage Nocturne | $30/$30 | $900 / $165 |
Tri Box 4 | 5-6-9-14 | $12 (50%) | $1,200+ |
Tri Box 5 | 5-6-9-10-14 | $24 (20%) | $800+ |
Total staked: $116 Best-case return: $2,800+ (if Half Yours wins + tri hits)
Track note: Soft 7 + rails 9m → midfield with cover ideal. All 5 horses can settle 4th–10th. No stamina guesses – every horse has 3000m+ form on Soft.
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Recommendations and reports managed and presented by MPC Markets Pty Ltd (ABN 33 668 234 562), as a Corporate Authorised Representative of LeMessurier Securities Pty Ltd (ABN 43 111 931 849) (LemSec), holder of Australian Financial Services Licence No. 296877, offers insights and analyses formulated in good faith and
Opinions and recommendations made by MPC Markets are GENERAL ADVICE ONLY and DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT YOUR PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES, always consult a financial professional before making any decisions.