Tech-Powered Rally as Chips Hit Record, SpaceX Fizzles

US equities rallied into the Juneteenth long weekend as the US–Iran peace deal and a blockbuster semiconductor catalyst combined to lift risk appetite. The S&P 500 climbed 1.1% to 7,497.86, the Nasdaq Composite surged 1.9% to 26,517.93, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1% to 51,565.26. For the holiday-shortened week, the S&P gained 0.9%, the Nasdaq rose a solid 2.4%, and the Dow added 0.7%.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (.SOX) surged to a record high after President Trump announced that Apple had agreed to work with Intel to design and build chips in the United States. Intel shares spiked more than 10% at the open, with other chipmakers including Marvell and Micron also advancing. Apple ticked higher after CEO Tim Cook told The Wall Street Journal the company would have to raise prices to counter a jump in memory and storage-chip costs. Accenture slid after cutting its full-year revenue growth guidance amid AI disruption to consulting and a $4 billion cybersecurity acquisition spree.

SpaceX shares dropped 6.5% to $178.50, extending post-IPO profit-taking after briefly placing the company among the world’s five most valuable firms. The stock remains more than 30% above its $135 offering price, but retail buying collapsed to just $9.1 million in net purchases versus $300 million in the first three sessions. SpaceX announced a $60 billion stock deal to acquire Anysphere, the startup behind AI coding agent Cursor, and its bankers are preparing a bond offering of at least $20 billion for its AI expansion. Thursday also marked the largest triple witching day on record, with approximately $8.3 trillion in options expiring, while JPMorgan estimated around $165 billion of equity selling and bond buying due to June-end portfolio rebalancing.

Global Stock Indices — 18 June 2026. Nasdaq led with a 1.9% gain; European STOXX 600 dipped as the continent digested hawkish central bank signals.

SpaceX’s revenue climbs while losses deepen — the largest IPO in history faces post-debut profit-taking.

President Donald Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran during a dinner at France’s Versailles palace on Wednesday, in a move that caught markets off guard — a formal signing ceremony had been slated for Switzerland on Friday. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian posted the signed MoU on social media, calling it a “historical document” and the result of “national resilience, political rationale, and responsible diplomacy.” The accord ends military operations on all fronts including in Lebanon, starts a 60-day negotiation window for a final deal, and crucially reopens the Strait of Hormuz without tolls or charges.

Commercial shipping wasted no time returning to the strategic waterway. Three Saudi-flagged supertankers sailed through the strait, while vessels carrying nearly 10 million barrels of stranded oil either appeared outside the strait or began transiting. US Central Command confirmed it had lifted the blockade on traffic to and from Iranian ports, stating that “all US military blockade enforcement efforts have ceased.” Vice President JD Vance told reporters that 12.5 million barrels of oil had transited the strait overnight — a high since the beginning of the conflict — and that gas prices had dropped below $4 per gallon for the first time since the war began.

The deal has drawn sharp criticism from multiple directions. Iran hawks, including Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker, argued the accord concedes too much to Tehran — particularly a $300 billion reconstruction fund financed by the US and regional Gulf nations. Trump dismissed critics on Truth Social, writing that the stock market had “Just Hit A RECORD HIGH” and oil prices were “tumbling down.” Israel has also pushed back, with some members of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government arguing the deal gives too many financial concessions and does nothing to curb Iran’s ballistic missile programme.

Vance struck a notably blunt tone on Israel, telling reporters: “If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world.” Separately, Israel published a map of an expanded military control zone in Lebanon, challenging the terms of the agreement, while Ukrainian drones evaded Russian air defences to strike an oil refinery in southeast Moscow for the second time in three days.

Crude benchmarks have slumped roughly 9–10% this week on the peace deal, approaching levels not seen since early March and effectively removing much of the geopolitical risk premium that had driven oil prices since the conflict began. Brent crude futures steadied at $79.69 a barrel, up 0.2% on the session, while US West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 0.2% to $76.66 a barrel. Oil remains roughly 30% higher for the year, and AJ Bell’s Russ Mould noted that Brent now trades “ever closer to the pre-conflict $70 level,” calling the end of the Iran war “a major catalyst for financial markets” in terms of inflation, interest rates, and consumer sentiment.

LPL Financial’s Adam Turnquist highlighted the technical picture, noting Brent crude had fallen nearly 40% from its April highs and was retesting support at its rising 200-day moving average, with the Relative Strength Index at year-to-date lows — conditions that could support a short-term relief rally. The International Energy Agency has forecast that oil markets could swing into a substantial surplus once Middle Eastern production fully recovers, projecting global supply growth of about 8 million barrels per day between 2026 and 2027, far outpacing expected demand growth of roughly 2 million bpd, resulting in a surplus of more than 5 million bpd by 2027.

Gold dropped as risk appetite improved and the US dollar surged. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%, with the dollar hitting a one-year high on rate hike bets. The euro held at $1.1460, the Japanese yen was little changed at 161.42 per dollar — though yen weakness drew warnings from Japanese officials — and the Australian dollar held at $0.7015. Bitcoin slipped 0.2% to $62,911.20. US 10-year Treasury yields settled around 4.45%, with 2-year yields at approximately 4.18% after hitting their highest in over a year on Wednesday. The 30-year rallied, with yields declining three basis points to 4.9%, in a sign the market believes inflation will be contained over the longer term.

Commodities, Energy & FX — 18 June 2026. Crude benchmarks near pre-war lows as Hormuz shipping resumes; the US dollar hit a one-year high on Fed rate hike bets.

Wednesday’s FOMC decision was the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, who immediately signalled a break from the Powell era. The committee unanimously held the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, but the updated Summary of Economic Projections shifted dramatically — projecting a rate of 3.8% at end-2026 (revised up from 3.4% in March), with 9 of 18 participants pencilling in at least one hike this year. JPMorgan’s Michael Feroli called the dot plot a “big shocker,” noting that among the nine members expecting hikes, five projected two hikes and one projected three.

Warsh also announced task forces to review five areas: Fed communications (including press conferences and dot plots), the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and jobs in the AI era, and the inflation framework — though not the 2% target itself. Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, observed that investors had “reconciled that the new sheriff heading the Federal Reserve presided over a very hawkish FOMC meeting” but were taking comfort from strong profit growth and falling energy prices.

Globally, central banks continued their tightening bias. The Bank of England voted 7–2 to hold borrowing costs at 3.75%, calling the recent drop in oil prices “encouraging,” though two of nine members voted for an immediate quarter-point hike. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have already pulled the trigger on rate increases. Forex.com’s Fawad Razaqzada suggested that if lower energy costs filter through to inflation data, “the Fed may ultimately find sufficient justification to keep rates unchanged for an extended period rather than hiking.”

Central bank rate paths — the hawkish global pivot continues even as oil prices collapse.

Australian shares are set to open lower despite Wall Street’s tech-powered rally, with ASX 200 futures down 51 points or 0.6% to 8,854. The Australian dollar held at $0.7015 as the US dollar surged to a one-year high. The session will be shaped by the tension between falling oil prices — broadly positive for inflation and consumer sentiment — and the hawkish global rate outlook flagged by the Fed and Bank of England.

BHP faces selling pressure after disclosing a $3.3 billion (US$2.3 billion) impairment on its Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan, where stage-two expansion costs have ballooned by US$2 billion to US$6.9 billion — bringing total cost blowouts to $6.7 billion across both stages. BHP shares on Wall Street fell 2.8%. In more positive corporate news, Macquarie Group completed a $734 million staff equity buyback at an average price of $238.80, with shares closing at a record high of $252.78 on Thursday. CBA revamped its technology leadership, appointing Victoria Ledda as group CIO and Rodrigo Castillo as group CTO from July 1.

PLS Group approved approximately $175 million in pre-final investment decision spending for its P2000 expansion at Pilgangoora, targeting 2 million tonnes per annum capacity by mid-2029. IDP Education guided adjusted EBIT of about $122 million for FY26 and announced a $50 million buyback. Arena REIT reported an $11.5 million portfolio valuation uplift and declared a final quarter distribution of 4.8125¢ per security, bringing total FY26 distributions to 19.25¢.

ASX — 19 June 2026. Futures point to a softer open despite the Wall Street rally as BHP’s potash impairment weighs on sentiment.