Nvidia's earnings on Wednesday night did what Nvidia's earnings always do. The stock jumped 8.7%, added $440 billion in market cap in a single session, and reminded everybody why they own chips. Revenue came in at $92.22 billion, roughly double the year-ago number. Q3 guidance of $108 billion was above the Street's already-stratospheric $104 billion. FY28 growth guided at 70%. Jensen Huang, once again, delivered a number that made the doubters look stupid.

The rest of the market barely noticed. Outside of tech, Thursday was a ghost town. Only one S&P sector finished positive. Salesforce ripped 23%, CrowdStrike 20%. The software ETF had its best day since April 2025. But the breadth was awful. The Nvidia result carried an entire index on its back, and everything else just sat there.

Before Wednesday it was a different week entirely. Monday opened with a chip rout. Nvidia fell for its seventh straight session. Memory stocks dropped 6%. Samsung's shareholder return program disappointed. Bessent launched "Operation Economic Outcast" against Iran, and oil fell to $85 on the back of it. Trump threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian autos. The Canadian dollar slid. Bitcoin pushed toward $80,000.

Tuesday was the recovery session. Nvidia snapped its losing streak with a 2.2% bounce. Oil dropped another 5.8% after Iran and Oman said they were talking about reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Consumer confidence hit a seven-month low at 89.4. Dick's Sporting Goods cratered 30.7% on a hideous quarter. Moderna surged 14% on a Barclays upgrade. The bond market rallied on Treasury buyback speculation, with the ten-year dropping to 4.63%.

Wednesday brought the PCE print. Core came in at 0.2% month-on-month, 3.3% year-on-year. GDP held at 1.5%. Copper hit a record at $6.75 per pound. Meta settled a children's advertising class action for $18 billion. Markets were flat, waiting for Jensen. Then he showed up after the bell and lit the place on fire.

This was the Nvidia week. Take one stock out of the S&P 500 and the index was probably flat to down. The Nasdaq outperformed because of course it did. CrowdStrike, Salesforce, and the broader software complex all caught fire on the assumption that if Jensen is printing money, everyone in the AI food chain will too. Whether that holds up is another question. On the ASX, BHP hit a record, Coles surprised to the upside, and the gold complex stayed bid. Europe managed a small gain on better-than-expected German data, though French fiscal concerns kept the champagne corked. Small caps in the US went nowhere, which tells you exactly how narrow this rally is.

Oil had its worst week in a while. WTI fell from the high $80s to $83.68, a drop of about 5%, after Iran and Oman released a joint statement about "constructive consultations" on reopening Hormuz navigation. There was even a brief report citing Pakistani and Iranian military sources claiming a US-Iran ceasefire agreement, though that was later walked back. Bessent's "Economic D-Day" sanctions sounded dramatic but fell short of a full blockade, and the market shrugged. Oil popped 2% on Thursday after the Nvidia euphoria lifted everything, but the weekly picture was clearly negative.

Copper was the commodity story of the week. Hit a record $6.75 per pound on tight supply and the AI infrastructure build-out narrative. Every data centre needs copper. Every grid upgrade needs copper. Every EV needs copper. And there isn't enough of it. That record price explains why BHP is at all-time highs and why the entire materials sector on the ASX had a strong week.

Gold consolidated above $4,600 after last week's surge past $4,500. UBS's $5,000 target still out there. Ray Dalio published his latest piece recommending 10-15% portfolio allocation to gold and "a bit" of Bitcoin, warning a US debt crisis could arrive "in three years, give or take two." Bitcoin broke above $80,000, its highest since mid-May. The debasement trade is alive and well. When the Treasury is openly discussing using its checking account to fund bond buybacks, people buy things that governments can't print.

The VIX dropped back to 15.5, which is what happens when one company adds $440 billion in market cap overnight. But the underlying risk picture hasn't improved. The US-Canada trade war is escalating in a way that nobody expected six months ago. Trump is threatening 50% tariffs on every car, truck, and auto part crossing the border from January. Carney is retaliating dollar-for-dollar. Ford fell 3.3% on Monday. GM dropped 1.1%. J.B. Hunt fell 5.7%. If this doesn't get resolved, it hits US manufacturing and logistics hard, right as the consumer is already wobbling.

The dollar is weak and getting weaker. The yuan hit its strongest against the dollar since February 2023. The euro and pound are both at multi-month highs. BofA told clients to add to their dollar shorts, specifically recommending long NZD/USD. When the Treasury is using TGA drawdowns and buybacks to suppress yields, the currency becomes the pressure valve. Citadel Securities' Nohshad Shah said it plainly: this is financial repression, and it weakens the dollar.

Market breadth on Thursday was a warning. Only one sector positive. One stock carrying the whole index. UBS raised their year-end S&P target to 8,100, which is lovely, but it's predicated on earnings growth continuing at this pace. If Jensen stumbles or the consumer rolls over further, that number looks ambitious. September is historically the worst month for stocks, and this time around we're walking into it with stretched valuations, a trade war, sticky inflation, and a Fed chair who won't tell anyone what he's thinking.

The final week of earnings season produced some sharp moves. Coles was the standout. Sales up 2.8%, underlying EBIT up 9.9%, underlying profit up 13.7%. Supermarkets EBIT grew 12.2% with genuine margin expansion, not just inflation-driven top-line. E-commerce sales jumped 26.4%. The stock popped 4.9% and deserved it. Clean result, clean outlook. The kind of quarter that makes fund managers happy.

BHP hit a record high of $67.72, up 48% year-to-date. Copper is doing the heavy lifting. The AI infrastructure thesis and the energy transition thesis are both copper stories, and BHP is positioned on both. Materials led the ASX higher on Monday, and BHP was the reason.

Monadelphous had the most confusing reaction of the week. Record revenue, up 31.5%. Profit up 52%. Dividend up 50%. And the stock fell 12% because management used the words "consolidation year" when describing FY27. The numbers were excellent. The crime was honesty about the future. Markets don't reward candour, apparently.

Other notables: Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure rose 2.7% on a solid half with FFO up 10.2%. Viva Energy fell 3.2% despite a record half because the Geelong refinery still isn't back to full capacity. Adore Beauty jumped 21% in a wild turnaround from morning losses. EVT surged 9% after announcing it would explore selling $800M in non-core assets. Regal Partners fell 2.8% after co-founder Phil King announced his retirement. FireFly Metals released a Green Bay PEA showing NPV of $2.2 billion at 42% IRR. South32 extended Sierra Gorda mine life to 2045 with a 61% ore reserve increase. The earnings season theme was clear: investors rewarded clean growth and punished anything that smelled like peak momentum.

Warsh's Jackson Hole speech is the event of the week, and possibly the month. Every fund manager we talk to says the same thing: they need to know the rules. Since Warsh dropped forward guidance in July, the market has been flying blind on rate expectations. If he stays cryptic on Friday, expect volatility. If he even hints at a September hold, bonds will rally. The RBA decision next Tuesday is the domestic focus. Several board members want to hike, the minutes made that clear. The CPI data from this week should determine whether they pull the trigger. And September is September. It's the month where overextended rallies come to die.