Don’t have an account?
Take a look at Mosaic
The morning report leaves this site on 5 October.
Mosaic is free to set up — see what’s inside before then.
Having trouble logging in?
Haven’t logged in yet? It takes a minute.
No setup, no app to install, nothing to connect. If you’re an MPC Markets client, your portfolio is already loaded behind your email address.
- Go to MosaicUse the login button on this page.
- Enter your emailThe address we use to contact you.
- Forgot password?Click it — reset link sent straight away.
- Still stuck?Call your broker and we’ll sort it out.
MPC Markets Morning Call — 28 September 2026: Wall Street Rebounds but Trump Rejects Iran’s Hormuz Offer as RBA Hike Looms
US equities rallied Friday on easing oil prices and AI strength, but Trump’s weekend rejection of Iran’s Strait of Hormuz proposal puts the war premium back in play as the RBA prepares to hike to 4.60% on Tuesday.
Wall Street closed higher Friday — Dow +0.9%, S&P 500 +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.5% — as crude oil retreated on hopes of an Iran diplomatic breakthrough and AI names led the tape. The US 10-year yield closed at 5.18% after hitting 5.23% intraday, with the 30-year topping 5.50% for the first time since 2004. But the weekend brought a sharp turn: Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day Hormuz reopening plan, putting the oil war premium back on the watchlist heading into Monday’s Asia open. In Australia, the ASX 200 sits at 8,665 (its lowest close since June), SPI futures point to a flat Monday open at 8,720, and the RBA board begins deliberations today ahead of Tuesday’s near-certain 25 bp hike to 4.60%.
Wall Street rebounded Friday (Dow +0.9%, S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.5%) on easing oil and AI leadership from Microsoft’s Copilot refresh and Akamai’s $11.6bn Anthropic deal.
Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day Hormuz reopening proposal on Saturday, raising the risk that oil’s war premium re-expands into the new week without a fresh settle to re-mark the barrel.
The US 10-year yield closed at 5.18% (high 5.23%) and the 30-year topped 5.50% for the first time since 2004, keeping the global bond rout front and centre.
The RBA board meets today and Tuesday, with markets pricing a ~91% chance of a 25 bp hike to 4.60% and at least two more increases toward 5%+ by year-end.
The ASX 200 closed Friday at 8,665 — its lowest since June and down 4.5% in September — with SPI futures indicating a flat Monday open at 8,720.
Key data this week: JOLTS (Tue), PCE and GDP revision (Wed), September payrolls (Fri); Micron earnings Wednesday after the bell is the next AI-infra test.
Wall Street Rebounds on Oil Relief and AI Leadership
US equities finished Friday’s final full week of September higher after a volatile stretch dominated by yields and crude. The Dow Jones rose 478 points (+0.93%) to 51,828, ending a three-week losing streak. The S&P 500 added 0.51% to 7,743 and the Nasdaq gained 0.48% to 27,068. For the week, the S&P and Nasdaq jumped 1.2% and 2.1% respectively, with mega-cap tech providing most of the heavy lifting while breadth remained uneven — seven S&P sectors were lower on the day and declining issues still outnumbered advancers.
The session was powered by AI momentum. Microsoft surged 3.66% after unveiling a rebuilt Copilot “super app” merging Home, Code and a new Autopilot agent for corporate customers. Akamai jumped after signing an $11.6 billion, seven-year cloud compute deal with Anthropic. Costco rose 2.93% on a fiscal Q4 EPS beat ($6.75 vs ~$6.54 expected), helped by roughly $0.15/share in one-time tariff refunds. On the downside, Meta fell 3.33%, Zscaler plunged over 10% on its CRO departure and cybersecurity peers sold off in sympathy.
August durable goods orders were flat (beating expectations of −0.4%), with core capex (nondefense ex-aircraft) a strong +1.6% vs +0.5% expected. University of Michigan final September sentiment fell to 48.1 (lowest in four months) with year-ahead inflation expectations jumping to 4.6% from 4.0%. Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack said the biggest inflation risk is an “inflationary mindset” and tied the rise in long-term yields to growth, fiscal supply and AI-related capital demand. CME FedWatch: October hike odds ~64–70%, with roughly one more hike priced by December.
Bonds: 30-Year Tops 5.5% as Yield Curve Steepens
Friday paused rather than reversed the week’s bond shock. The US 10-year yield closed at 5.18% (Yahoo) after an intraday high of 5.23% — the highest closing area since July 2007. The 30-year yield rose to 5.505%, topping 5.50% for the first time since 2004, while the 2-year fell 6.9 bp to 4.862% as the front end tracked oil prices lower and the long end stayed sticky on growth, fiscal supply and AI-related capital demand.
RBC’s Izaac Brook noted there are “no real technical levels for people to hang on to,” leaving yields to “keep drifting higher and higher.” SMBC’s Monty Gandhi said there is “too much priced in the front end,” with short-term investors buying expecting bearishness to flow into the belly. Morgan Stanley raised its Treasury yield forecasts, while UBS CIO expects a less aggressive path than fully priced — a December hike then a hold. The MOVE bond-volatility index sits at ~105, well above its decade average of ~80.
Oil Eases Friday — Then Trump Rejects Iran’s Hormuz Offer
Crude reversed Thursday’s spike into Friday’s close. Brent settled around $US104.41 (−2.1%) and WTI at $92.41 (−2.3%) as Iran proposed a seven-day roadmap: if Washington lifts its naval blockade, waives oil sanctions, observes a ceasefire including Lebanon and releases frozen assets, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen and wider talks would follow. Iranian President Pezeshkian told CBS Iran was “ready for an agreement.”
Weekend Escalation: Trump Rejects the Deal
On Saturday, Trump told reporters: “I reject their proposal… I rejected their deal,” arguing Iran wants Hormuz opened immediately because “they’re losing so badly.” The Wall Street Journal reported the rejection, citing officials sceptical Iran would meet US demands and noting Trump sees a renewed bombing campaign as likely after the November midterms. Bloomberg reported Monday that Iran “won’t soften demands” while Axios reported Trump expects renewed talks this week. Friday’s oil dip priced a deal as possible; Saturday’s rejection puts the war premium back on the watchlist without a fresh Sunday settle to re-mark the barrel. Weekend CFD oil was up +1.43%.
Aussie Dollar, Yen & the RBA Hike Watch
The Australian dollar recovered to US70.23¢ (+0.2%) as the US dollar eased after a strong week. The DXY fell ~0.25% to ~101.04. The yen was the standout, rising ~1% to 157.27/dollar after Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama revealed Trump raised concerns about yen weakness during a bilateral summit, and Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed close communication on excessive volatility. Gold held the $US4,321 area.
RBA Decision: Tuesday 2:30pm AEST
Markets price a ~90–91% probability of a 25 bp hike to 4.60% on Tuesday, with all 29 economists in a Bloomberg survey tipping the move. Money markets price at least two more increases and better-than-even odds of a third toward 5%+. ANZ is the only major bank officially tipping a November follow-up, with HSBC and UBS also on a two-hike path. Macquarie lifted fixed mortgage rates again last week; Canstar noted 18 lenders raised at least one fixed term in September. Construction is expanding at its fastest pace in 60+ years (data centres and housing), with unemployment in the sector at just 2.6% — feeding the RBA’s inflation concern alongside oil.
Day Ahead: Key Events — Monday 28 September & the Week
- RBA board meeting begins today — decision Tuesday 2:30pm AEST, Governor Bullock press conference 3:30pm.
- ASX open — SPI 8,720 (+3) pointing to a flat open; cash base 8,665 (lowest since June); watch bank vs miner leadership, Netwealth spillover, and any Iran follow-through.
- Wednesday: August CPI (Aus) — headline expected ~4.0% (from 3.5%), trimmed mean ~3.6%; NAB colour 4.1% / 3.7%.
- US data flow: JOLTS (Tue), PCE / personal income / Q2 GDP revision (Wed), September payrolls (Fri; consensus ~100k jobs, 4.2% unemployment).
- Micron earnings (Wed after the bell) — the next AI-infrastructure test after Microsoft/Akamai led the tape last week.
- Geopolitical watch: Trump’s rejection of Iran’s Hormuz offer is the weekend delta; Axios reports he expects renewed talks this week. China returns from holiday into National Day week.