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MPC Markets Morning Call — 29 September 2026: Wall Street Stumbles as Yields Hit 19-Year Highs and Oil Stays Firm
US equities fall as the 10-year yield touches 5.27%; Brent crude holds above US$105 on Iran tensions; gold smashed 3.6%; RBA expected to hike to 4.60% today.
US equities closed lower on Monday as Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs and oil remained firm on Iran–Strait of Hormuz tensions, with the Dow losing 0.7%, the S&P 500 falling 0.8% and the Nasdaq dropping 0.9%. The US 10-year yield touched 5.27% — a fresh 19-year high — while Brent crude settled at US$105.28 after spiking more than US$4 early in the session before Qatar mediation hopes trimmed gains. Gold was smashed 3.6% as the non-yielding metal buckled under surging real yields and a firmer dollar. In Australia, the RBA is expected to deliver a fourth 2026 rate hike today, lifting the cash rate to 4.60%, while the ASX 200 futures point to a modestly higher open at 8,727.
Wall Street finished lower — Dow −0.7%, S&P 500 −0.8%, Nasdaq −0.9% — as higher yields and oil fed inflation fears.
US 10-year yield closed at 5.24% after touching 5.27%, a fresh 19-year high; 30-year hit 5.56%, highest since 2004.
Brent crude settled at US$105.28 (+0.9%) after an early US$4 spike on Iran tensions was pared by Qatar mediation hopes.
Gold collapsed 3.6% to US$4,131/oz as surging real yields crushed the non-yielding metal; silver fell roughly 5%.
Nvidia rose 1.7% on a record US$150 billion buyback authorisation increase; Boeing fell 6.9% on an FAA MAX 10 delay.
RBA decision at 2:30pm AEST today — markets price a 90–95% chance of a 25 bp hike to 4.60%, the fourth increase this year.
Yields Surge, Wall Street Sells
US equities finished Monday's session lower after Treasury yields pushed to multi-year highs and crude oil stayed firm on Iran–Strait of Hormuz tensions. The Dow Jones fell 347 points (−0.67%) to 51,481; the S&P 500 lost 59.72 (−0.77%) to 7,683.69; the Nasdaq Composite dropped 248 (−0.92%) to 26,820; and the Russell 2000 slipped 0.69%. Communication services paced eight of 11 S&P sectors lower, while energy held up with crude — Exxon +1.2%, Chevron +0.9%. The VIX rose 1.20 to 16.07.
CME FedWatch pricing for a second consecutive October rate hike climbed to roughly 70% on Monday, up from 64% on Friday and just 18% a month ago. The Fed raised rates earlier this month in the first hike since 2023 under Chair Kevin Warsh. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday urged the Fed to keep an “open mind,” citing AI productivity and deregulation as inflation-containing forces.
Bond Market Under Pressure
The selloff in Treasuries extended rather than paused on Monday. The 10-year yield closed at 5.240% after hitting a session high of 5.274% — a fresh 19-year high per AFR and Bloomberg colour. The 30-year closed at 5.561%, its highest since mid-2004. The 2-year rose to roughly 4.94% from 4.86% on Friday, with the monthly gain of more than 50 basis points marking the largest since February 2023 as markets price additional Fed hikes.
Globally, Japan’s 10-year JGB traded near 3.09%, while 2-year JGBs hit 31.5-year highs near 1.98%. BOJ July minutes showed most members see the need to keep raising rates. Germany’s 10-year bund reached roughly 3.64%, its highest since June 2009, keeping European equities muted. The implication for markets: higher real yields plus oil-driven inflation fear pressured growth and tech while supporting energy; gold was crushed as a non-yielding asset.
Oil Spikes Then Pares on Qatar Talks
Crude surged more than US$4 early Monday after Trump’s weekend rejection of Iran’s Strait of Hormuz proposal, then pared into the US afternoon as Qatar mediation hopes emerged. Brent settled at US$105.28/bbl (+0.9%) and WTI at US$92.60 (+0.2%) on Reuters settles. Qatari mediators were expected to hold talks with Iran’s foreign minister and the US side in New York this week, focused on an amended version of Iran’s seven-day proposal from UNGA.
Saudi Arabia has restored about half of the flows through its East-West pipeline bypassing Hormuz — roughly 3.5 million barrels per day of its 7 mb/d capacity — with loadings at Yanbu resuming last week. Kpler data shows Middle East crude exports rebounded to 12.8 mb/d in September, though Hormuz shipments at 7.4 mb/d remain well below the pre-conflict level of roughly 20 mb/d through the strait.
Corporate Movers and ASX Watch
Nvidia rose 1.68% to US$228.86 after the board authorised a record US$150 billion increase to its share buyback program, bringing total repurchase capacity to US$235 billion through fiscal 2028. Boeing tumbled 6.9% after the FAA delayed 737 MAX 10 certification over a newly disclosed software and landing-guidance issue. Tesla fell 3.9% on a J.P. Morgan price-target cut and weak Q3 delivery expectations. Meta dropped 4.8% as communication services led the sector decline.
On the ASX, Northern Star surged 6.2% to $23.47 on Gold Fields’ $27.00/share takeover bid at a 22% premium. Karoon Energy fell 12.9% after a second production downgrade in four months. Macquarie Group gained 2.3% as financials rallied ahead of the RBA, while materials sold off with the gold and copper smash — BHP −1.5%, RIO −1.1%. Goodman Group axed a $1.2 billion Sydney data centre project after public backlash.
Day Ahead: Key Events — Tuesday 29 September
- RBA cash-rate decision (2:30pm AEST) — Markets price a 90–95% chance of a 25 bp hike to 4.60%; Governor Bullock press conference expected around 3:30pm.
- August household spending — Released before the RBA announcement; a key input for the Board’s assessment.
- Wednesday: August CPI — Desk colour points to headline near 4.0% (from 3.5%) and trimmed mean near 3.6%.
- US: PCE inflation (Wednesday), September payrolls (Friday) — Payrolls expected around +90k with unemployment steady at 4.1%.
- Iran / Qatar mediation — Watch for any progress on Hormuz talks; Brent remains above US$105.
- Micron earnings — Due later in the week; a read on memory-chip demand and AI capex.