Bulls vs. Bears

Oil hit $93, Fed rate hike odds swung wildly, and Nvidia bought Hugging Face for $12.9 billion. Three simultaneous shocks heading into September, historically the worst month for equities.
This week we break down the oil breakout, the Warsh vs Waller showdown at the Fed, why open-source AI just became a closed shop, and what September seasonal weakness actually means for your portfolio. Plus stock picks, what the market is missing, and our bull vs bear calls for next week.
Featuring Mark Gardner, Kai Chen, Finn Judell and Jonathan Tacadena.

Jensen Huang has done it again. NVIDIA posted $59.7 billion in net income, more than 12 iconic companies combined, on 70% margins. Software stocks are surging, the SaaSpocalypse is dead, and we’re only a quarter of the way through the hyperscaler capex cycle.

This week the boys break down NVIDIA’s monster earnings, why ASX tech is lagging US software by 43%, Amazon’s robotics play, the uranium setup heating up on US-Canada trade tensions, and warning signs in private credit. Plus the full Buy, Avoid and Wild Card picks for the week ahead.

It’s been a quiet week, so the team revisits the forgotten thematics of 2026, from rare earths and strategic metals pulling back 41% from their highs, to the software sector finally catching a bid after private equity stepped in on Workday. We unpack what’s next for ASX earnings season with NAB, BHP, CSL and JB Hi-Fi on deck, why private equity keeps picking off undervalued ASX mid-caps, and whether AI’s “neocloud” phase is where the real money gets made. Plus, Kai explains why AI agents escaping sandboxes should have you paying attention to cybersecurity.

It’s been a quiet week, so the team revisits the forgotten thematics of 2026, from rare earths and strategic metals pulling back 41% from their highs, to the software sector finally catching a bid after private equity stepped in on Workday. We unpack what’s next for ASX earnings season with NAB, BHP, CSL and JB Hi-Fi on deck, why private equity keeps picking off undervalued ASX mid-caps, and whether AI’s “neocloud” phase is where the real money gets made. Plus, Kai explains why AI agents escaping sandboxes should have you paying attention to cybersecurity.

The full team is back for EP131 and it’s a packed one — markets at all-time highs, record ETF inflows, and ASX earnings season kicking off with some classic algo-driven sell-offs that turned into buying opportunities. We break down AMP, Credit Corp, James Hardie and Nick Scali, the SaaS apocalypse recovery with CrowdStrike and Atlassian up 100%+ from lows, Microsoft and Amazon saving the US market while Google’s AI team heads for the exits, a $45 billion hedge fund wiped out by a 20% move, gold bouncing off $4,200, and our Bulls vs Bears calls for next week.

Microsoft saved the week. Nothing else did. Oil crashed from $100 to $80 on a ceasefire nobody agreed to, then ripped back to $85 after Iran launched a surprise missile attack. The Fed held rates but three dissenters voted for a hike — the most fractured FOMC vote in years. Meta posted a rare EPS miss. South Korea’s KOSPI crashed 10% with circuit breakers triggered. And then Microsoft dropped Azure +43%, Copilot at 30 million seats, and $90 billion in quarterly revenue — sending the stock up 15.5% for the largest single-day dollar gain in corporate history.
Underneath that headline rally, margin debt hit a record $1.5 trillion, fund managers sit at 3.6% cash, and Nvidia’s credit default swaps are at all-time highs. GDP came in at 1.5% versus 2.1% expected. Core PCE printed 3.7%. The stagflation case writes itself.
One stock rescued the index. That should concern you more than it comforts you.
Read the full edition for our complete breakdown of the week’s hyperscaler earnings, the oil whipsaw, Korean circuit breakers, risk dashboard, and the MPC Markets view heading into August.

Oil crossed $100. Big Tech burned cash. And the market couldn’t figure out which problem to worry about first.

Brent topped $100 for the first time since May after Houthis attacked two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea — opening a second front alongside the already-crippled Strait of Hormuz. Defence stocks surged (LMT +10.5%, RTX +7.3%), while Tesla fell 14.5% and Alphabet dropped 7% after both reported negative free cash flow.

Intel was the week’s genuine bright spot — revenue up 25%, data centre AI up 59%, stock up 10% after hours. But one turnaround doesn’t fix $700 billion in annual AI spending hitting balance sheets that are already stretching.

The Fed meeting next week is going to be ugly. Hike into an oil shock, or hold while inflation reaccelerates? Rate hike odds jumped from 10% to 35% in a single week. Jobless claims hit 187,000 — lowest since 1969. The 30-year Treasury yield is at its longest stretch above 5% since 2003.

Next week: Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon. Those four will tell us whether AI spending holds up or cracks. Watch the capex guidance, not headline EPS.

Inside this edition: Global markets wrap, macro & inflation deep dive, commodities update, risk dashboard, ASX and US movers, analyst perspectives, earnings calendar, and the MPC Markets view.

Then TSMC dropped a 77% profit beat on Thursday and the stock fell 2.3%. The SOX index tanked 4%. SanDisk lost 12.5%, Seagate 10%. Netflix missed after hours and shed 8.6%. The market is telling you something when it sells the best numbers in semiconductor history. It is telling you the trade is priced, the capex numbers are scaring people, and the next move is more likely down than up.

The optimists are away — so the bond traders took over. Mark and Kai run through 12 risk factors quietly stacking up: record margin lending, fund manager cash at its lowest since 1999, almost no downside protection, and corporate bond demand drying up. Plus the semiconductor split, Meta making its own chips, and why next week’s US bank earnings could set the tone for the quarter.