The 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since 2002 before a sharp reversal rescued equities, while oil surged on fresh US troop deployments and China’s fuel-export ban. Russia’s nuclear warning over Kaliningrad and Nvidia’s financing headaches added to a volatile session. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.2% gain as Fed Vice Chair Jefferson signalled patience on hikes.
Cooler-than-expected US inflation data slashed October rate hike odds, but a vicious late-session selloff left the Dow down 0.9% and the S&P 500 off 0.25% as long-dated Treasury yields held near multi-decade highs. Micron’s blowout earnings after the bell lit up the AI trade.
US equities closed lower on Monday as Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs — the 10-year touching 5.27%, a fresh 19-year high — and Brent crude held above US$105 on Iran–Strait of Hormuz tensions, with the Dow losing 0.7%, the S&P 500 0.8% and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Gold was smashed 3.6% as surging real yields crushed non-yielding assets, while Nvidia bucked the trend with a record US$150 billion buyback authorisation increase and Boeing tumbled 6.9% on an FAA MAX 10 certification delay. In Australia, SPI futures point to a modestly higher open at 8,727 ahead of today’s RBA decision at 2:30pm AEST, where markets price a 90–95% chance of a 25 bp hike to 4.60%.
Wall Street rebounded Friday — Dow +0.93%, S&P 500 +0.51%, Nasdaq +0.48% — led by AI momentum from Microsoft’s Copilot refresh and Akamai’s $11.6 billion Anthropic deal, as crude oil pulled back on Iran’s seven-day Hormuz reopening proposal. But Trump rejected the deal on Saturday, putting the oil war premium back on the watchlist heading into Monday’s Asia open. The US 10-year yield closed at 5.18% (high 5.23%) with the 30-year topping 5.50% for the first time since 2004. In Australia, the ASX 200 sits at 8,665 — its lowest since June — with SPI futures pointing to a flat Monday open at 8,720, and the RBA board begins deliberations today ahead of Tuesday’s near-certain 25 bp hike to 4.60%.
Bond yields exploded, the Nasdaq hit a record, and nobody can explain both at once. The 10-year surged 25 basis points to 5.21% in a single week while Meta’s Muse app drove AI stocks to new highs. Oil whipsawed on Hormuz diplomacy before Houthi missiles pushed Brent back to $106.60. With the RBA set to hike Monday, diesel at record highs, and 924 Australian construction companies in external administration, we break down what matters and where the risks are hiding. Stance: bearish.
Chip stocks snap a two-week losing streak on light post-holiday volume. AMD, Broadcom, TSMC all up big — Nvidia lagged on delay rumours. Dow at a record, S&P within 1% of highs. Bitcoin up nearly 10% in five days. Former Japanese currency czar says yen undervalued by 20%. Fed Chair Warsh testifies tonight, first-under-Warsh minutes out Wednesday. ASX news: Lynas, South32, Netwealth, VanEck’s AI ETF. Daily market briefing with Mark Gardner at MPC Markets.
ASX gears up for a robust day, influenced by China’s expected stimulus, U.S. cyclical and banking upswing, and policy developments from central banks of New Zealand and Australia.