Weekend Edition EP82: Tech Stalls as Seasonal Weakness Beckons

This episode of Bulls versus Bears (weekend edition) features Mark from MPC Markets and guest Kai Chen, discussing recent market events during earnings season. The main focus is on tech sector weakness, overvaluation concerns, AI monetization challenges, and seasonal stock market tendencies. The hosts analyze recent trends in the US and Australian markets, highlighting rapid market recoveries after drawdowns, dramatic moves in major stocks like CSL and WiseTech, and shifting flows between sectors. They cover the infrastructure buildout needed for AI (“picks and shovels” like data centers, copper, and water), the defensive nature of healthcare and financials, and the significance of upcoming earnings, notably Nvidia. The episode also critiques the performance of financial analysts, discusses defensive investment strategies, and reviews unique features of the current investment climate.

Key Takeaways

• Tech Sector Concerns: A recent MIT study found that 95% of companies surveyed aren’t making money on AI, highlighting monetization challenges and raising fears within the tech sector, particularly among smaller firms.
• Overvaluation Indicators: Multiple valuation metrics (Shiller CAPE, price-to-book, price-to-sales, market cap to GDP) suggest US equity markets are substantially overvalued.
• Market Rotation: There is a noticeable shift from big tech into more defensive sectors, such as healthcare, financials, and consumer staples, both in the US and Australia.
• Rapid Bounce-backs: Since 2015, recoveries from major pullbacks in the S&P 500 have been much faster (average 127 days to break even) compared to historical norms.
• Seasonal Weakness: September is statistically the worst month for equities, and there are multiple risk signals (high margin debt, low credit spreads, upcoming rate cuts).
• AI and Efficiency: While AI is broadly adopted and drives efficiency, this cost-saving is not easily visible on company balance sheets or in revenue, complicating the narrative around “monetization.”
• Hedging Strategies: The hosts advocate a short-term hedge using market insurance due to volatility, with low cost attributed to the VIX being at multi-year lows.
• Australian Market Critiques: Observations on stocks like JB Hi-Fi and CSL illustrate how high expectations and passive ETF flows have amplified volatility; active fund managers and analysts are criticized for missing big moves.
• AI Infrastructure Buildout: The “picks and shovels” phase of AI—expansion of data centers, related resource demand for copper, water, and power—is seen as the main area of opportunity before AI consumer products mature.
• Upcoming Earnings Importance: Nvidia’s results are seen as highly influential, potentially providing a crucial boost or further pressure on sentiment.