Author name: Mark Gardner

CEO Mark brings more than 25 years of experience in fixed-income and equities trading. He takes a holistic approach to investing, specialising in top-down thematic and macro analysis to identify opportunities and trends in the Australian and global equity market. Qualifications: Derivatives Level 2 (ADA2); ADA1; Margin Lending Tier 1; RG146; General Advice Stockbroking (1997) Links: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-gardner-88733334/ X: https://x.com/markgardn Livewire: https://www.livewiremarkets.com/contributors/mark-gardner-mpc-markets

MPC Morning Call

Stocks Take a Breather Near Record Highs

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Global markets diverged overnight as the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to a fresh record close above 54,300, powered by defensive and value names, while the Nasdaq tumbled 0.8% on a sharp rotation out of mega-cap technology stocks. Alphabet fell 4% after AI chief Jeff Dean announced his departure, AMD dropped 7% on disappointing data-centre guidance, and SpaceX slid 14% ahead of Thursday’s employee share lockup expiry. Gold rocketed 4.2% to a record US$4,248 per ounce as the US dollar hit a seven-week low, reinforcing the haven bid amid geopolitical uncertainty over Iran’s Hormuz Strait and a coordinated cyber attack on four of the world’s largest hedge funds. Oil edged lower on hopes of a shipping deal in the strait, while Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari rattled markets by suggesting rate hikes — not cuts — may be needed, even as ADP payrolls came in at just 44,000 versus 68,000 expected. The ASX faces a flat open with SPI futures down 9 points to 9,143, as investors digest AMP’s $150 million buyback announcement against REA Group’s 22% profit decline ahead of Thursday’s labour force data and next week’s RBA decision.

Company Insights, Education

FOMO in Full Flow as Stocks Hit Fresh Record Highs

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Wall Street roared back to record territory overnight as twin tailwinds — hopes for an imminent US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and a wave of blockbuster earnings from Palantir, Caterpillar, and Big Tech — drove the S&P 500 up 1.8% to its first record close since June 2. Oil plunged nearly 6% on the diplomatic optimism, while Treasury yields fell and gold firmed. After the bell, SpaceX beat revenue estimates in its first post-IPO quarter but fell on heavy AI spending, and AMD’s strong guidance couldn’t prevent profit-taking after a 142% YTD run. ASX futures are pointing to a 41-point gain this morning.

MPC Morning Call

momentum & Iran hopes drive stocks higher

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Wall Street rallied to kick off August — Dow hit a record, Nasdaq surged 2.1% on tech strength, oil plunged 5% on Iran peace hopes (though Hormuz remains shut), Japan spent ~$100B defending the yen in two days, and Palantir/Amazon headlined a strong earnings stretch.

MPC Morning Call

AI Trade Back on as AI Cloud Bounces

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Wall Street closed a turbulent July with Amazon’s 15% surge reviving AI confidence, but the Nasdaq slid 3.2% for the month as chips posted their worst decline since 2008. President Trump cancelled a planned Iran strike over the weekend, sending oil down 6% in CFD trading, while three Fed dissenters voted for a rate hike. ASX futures point to a 1% fall as reporting season kicks off.

Bulls vs. Bears

Bulls vs Bears EP130: CHIPLASH

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Microsoft saved the week. Nothing else did. Oil crashed from $100 to $80 on a ceasefire nobody agreed to, then ripped back to $85 after Iran launched a surprise missile attack. The Fed held rates but three dissenters voted for a hike — the most fractured FOMC vote in years. Meta posted a rare EPS miss. South Korea’s KOSPI crashed 10% with circuit breakers triggered. And then Microsoft dropped Azure +43%, Copilot at 30 million seats, and $90 billion in quarterly revenue — sending the stock up 15.5% for the largest single-day dollar gain in corporate history.
Underneath that headline rally, margin debt hit a record $1.5 trillion, fund managers sit at 3.6% cash, and Nvidia’s credit default swaps are at all-time highs. GDP came in at 1.5% versus 2.1% expected. Core PCE printed 3.7%. The stagflation case writes itself.
One stock rescued the index. That should concern you more than it comforts you.
Read the full edition for our complete breakdown of the week’s hyperscaler earnings, the oil whipsaw, Korean circuit breakers, risk dashboard, and the MPC Markets view heading into August.

MPC Morning Call

Fed Credibility in Question & META Smashed

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Wall Street tumbled after the Fed held rates in a fractured 9–3 vote, with three officials dissenting for a hike and Chairman Warsh insisting there is “no soft inflation target.” The Nasdaq 100 entered correction territory as chips cratered, while oil surged 7% after Iran launched a surprise missile attack on US forces and Trump vowed retaliation. Treasury 30-year yields hit a 19-year high above 5.2%, gold rallied to $4,102, and SPI futures fell 51 points to 8,945.

MPC Morning Call

Stock Exposure Broadens as AI and Chips Hit

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Wall Street split sharply as semiconductor stocks plunged toward their worst month since 2002, with Nvidia’s credit default swap surging to a record 82 basis points on circular financing fears, while the Dow rallied 1% on strong earnings from Sherwin-Williams, Coca-Cola and Boeing. Oil posted its worst three-day stretch since 2020 as US–Iran ceasefire talks held, before bouncing 5% after hours on fresh Middle East attacks. ASX 200 futures point 0.8% higher ahead of today’s pivotal June quarter CPI print and Rio Tinto’s half-year results.

MPC Morning Call

Stocks Fall Friday, but open higher Monday on US/Iran Hopes

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Wall Street posted a second straight weekly loss as Brent crude briefly topped $100 on Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, Alphabet’s $205 billion capex guidance triggered the worst Magnificent Seven selloff since April 2025, and Trump imposed new tariffs on 60 economies. The US paused airstrikes on Iran after 13 consecutive nights, with Tehran signalling a reciprocal halt heading into a pivotal week of Fed policy and mega-cap earnings.

Bulls vs. Bears

Bulls vs Bears EP129: Hyperscalers turn into Hyper-spenders

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Oil crossed $100. Big Tech burned cash. And the market couldn’t figure out which problem to worry about first.

Brent topped $100 for the first time since May after Houthis attacked two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea — opening a second front alongside the already-crippled Strait of Hormuz. Defence stocks surged (LMT +10.5%, RTX +7.3%), while Tesla fell 14.5% and Alphabet dropped 7% after both reported negative free cash flow.

Intel was the week’s genuine bright spot — revenue up 25%, data centre AI up 59%, stock up 10% after hours. But one turnaround doesn’t fix $700 billion in annual AI spending hitting balance sheets that are already stretching.

The Fed meeting next week is going to be ugly. Hike into an oil shock, or hold while inflation reaccelerates? Rate hike odds jumped from 10% to 35% in a single week. Jobless claims hit 187,000 — lowest since 1969. The 30-year Treasury yield is at its longest stretch above 5% since 2003.

Next week: Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon. Those four will tell us whether AI spending holds up or cracks. Watch the capex guidance, not headline EPS.

Inside this edition: Global markets wrap, macro & inflation deep dive, commodities update, risk dashboard, ASX and US movers, analyst perspectives, earnings calendar, and the MPC Markets view.

MPC Morning Call

Investors Finally Wake up to Mounting Risks

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Wall Street sold off as Brent crude topped $100 a barrel on Houthi strikes against Saudi tankers, while Alphabet and Tesla dragged the Nasdaq down 2.2% after both reported negative free cash flow. Treasury yields hit 18-month highs, Australia was hit with a 12.5% U.S. tariff, and ASX futures point to a weaker open.

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