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Wall Street climbed to all-time highs on Tuesday as the AI trade reignited, Treasury yields pulled back from 24-year peaks, and oil prices steadied — setting the stage for a pivotal earnings season starting next week.
The Nasdaq closed at a record high on Monday, rising 1.1% to 27,477 as mega-cap tech and M&A activity defied a historic bond sell-off. The US 10-year yield touched 5.35% — its highest since 2002 — while BMO warned the 30-year is headed to 6%. Oil fell 2% and the euro slumped to a 17-month low on French fiscal contagion. ASX futures point firmer ahead of the Firmus IPO.
The 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since 2002 before a sharp reversal rescued equities, while oil surged on fresh US troop deployments and China’s fuel-export ban. Russia’s nuclear warning over Kaliningrad and Nvidia’s financing headaches added to a volatile session. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.2% gain as Fed Vice Chair Jefferson signalled patience on hikes.
Cooler-than-expected US inflation data slashed October rate hike odds, but a vicious late-session selloff left the Dow down 0.9% and the S&P 500 off 0.25% as long-dated Treasury yields held near multi-decade highs. Micron’s blowout earnings after the bell lit up the AI trade.
Trump met with AI leaders overnight and renamed AI to “Super Intelligence” — plus they’ll self-regulate. We unpack why that changes nothing. Bond yields hit levels not seen since 2002 (30-year at 5.62%), US consumer confidence collapsed to a 12½-year low, and the RBA hiked to 4.60%. Gold and silver copped a massive sell-off. Phil runs through technical setups on Pro Medicus and 40X. Plus: Micron earnings tomorrow, Aussie CPI today, and US PCE and payrolls on Friday.
US equities closed lower on Monday as Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs — the 10-year touching 5.27%, a fresh 19-year high — and Brent crude held above US$105 on Iran–Strait of Hormuz tensions, with the Dow losing 0.7%, the S&P 500 0.8% and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Gold was smashed 3.6% as surging real yields crushed non-yielding assets, while Nvidia bucked the trend with a record US$150 billion buyback authorisation increase and Boeing tumbled 6.9% on an FAA MAX 10 certification delay. In Australia, SPI futures point to a modestly higher open at 8,727 ahead of today’s RBA decision at 2:30pm AEST, where markets price a 90–95% chance of a 25 bp hike to 4.60%.
Wall Street rebounded Friday — Dow +0.93%, S&P 500 +0.51%, Nasdaq +0.48% — led by AI momentum from Microsoft’s Copilot refresh and Akamai’s $11.6 billion Anthropic deal, as crude oil pulled back on Iran’s seven-day Hormuz reopening proposal. But Trump rejected the deal on Saturday, putting the oil war premium back on the watchlist heading into Monday’s Asia open. The US 10-year yield closed at 5.18% (high 5.23%) with the 30-year topping 5.50% for the first time since 2004. In Australia, the ASX 200 sits at 8,665 — its lowest since June — with SPI futures pointing to a flat Monday open at 8,720, and the RBA board begins deliberations today ahead of Tuesday’s near-certain 25 bp hike to 4.60%.
Wall Street finished little changed overnight as a fresh Treasury sell-off pushed the US 10-year yield to its highest since 2007, even as Brent crude jumped past $106 a barrel on renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. The Trump–Xi summit delivered plenty of pageantry but little hard substance, and the ASX is poised to open lower with futures down 32 points to 8,706 ahead of next week’s expected RBA hike.
Wall Street’s AI trade roared back Monday, sending the Nasdaq to a record close as Meta surged 11% and AMD topped $1 trillion. Oil fell for a fourth straight session on Middle East diplomacy hopes, pulling Treasury yields back under 5%. The ASX is set for a firmer open ahead of Thursday’s Trump–Xi summit.
Semiconductors carried the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher on triple-witching Friday as ~$7 trillion in options expired, but the Dow slipped and the 10-year yield climbed back to 5.00%. Weekend Houthi strikes on Riyadh and Iran’s declaration that Hormuz stays closed re-escalated the oil risk into Monday’s Asia open. SPI futures point to a 57-point drop for the ASX.
Wall Street surged to fresh records on Thursday as the Fed held rates steady and signalled patience, with the S&P 500 jumping 1.6% and the Dow clearing 51,700 for the first time. Oil markets rallied above US$104 on renewed Iran sanctions fears while bond yields climbed after the Fed flagged persistent inflation risks. The ASX is set to open higher, with SPI futures pointing to a 54-point gain as investors digest the Fed’s hawkish hold.
The Federal Reserve hiked rates 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% in a unanimous vote — the first increase since 2023 — as Chair Warsh warned inflation is “too high” and refused forward guidance. Wall Street reversed sharply, oil pulled back on Saudi workaround cargoes via Oman, and the ASX faces a rates-heavy open with SPI futures down 0.75%.