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Stocks Drift Lower as Iran Escalates

Wall Street ended lower on Monday as renewed US–Iran military strikes sent Brent crude surging above $90 and pushed Treasury yields to their highest since January 2025. Despite the pullback, US stocks closed August with gains — the S&P 500 up 2.6% and Nasdaq up 3.9%. Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech has markets pricing a 64% chance of a September rate hike, with Friday’s nonfarm payrolls the key swing factor.

MPC Morning Call

Stocks Lower as Warsh Talk Tough on Inflation

Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole debut sent two-year yields surging 12 basis points and rate-hike odds above 50% for September. Wall Street slipped with the S&P 500 down 0.25% to 7,711.76, while a U.S. strike on Iranian launchers at Larak Island kept the geopolitical risk premium elevated and ASX futures point to a weaker Monday open at 9,009.

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Tech Higher as Jensen Delivers

Nvidia’s blockbuster $92 billion quarter and 70% forward growth guidance carried Wall Street higher on Thursday, with the Nasdaq surging 1.6% even as every other S&P 500 sector declined. Core PCE inflation held stubbornly at 3.3%, keeping rate hike expectations alive ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote on Friday.

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Software Stocks & Nvidia Beat

Wall Street traded flat as July PCE inflation came in hotter than expected at 3.7%, reinforcing bets the Fed will hold rates in September. After the bell, Nvidia’s revenue more than doubled to $96.2 billion but a lower-than-hoped margin guide sent shares down 2%, while Salesforce and CrowdStrike both surged 12% on strong outlooks.

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US/Canada Trade Tensions

Wall Street closed higher on Friday but booked losses for the week as surging bond yields and Iran sanctions fears whipsawed sentiment. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapped three-week winning streaks while the Dow posted its second straight weekly decline. Oil rose for a sixth consecutive session after President Trump threatened sanctions on Iran’s trading partners, and billionaire Ray Dalio warned a US debt crisis could arrive within three years. ASX 200 SPI futures point to a 41-point rise at the Monday open as attention shifts to Nvidia earnings, Jackson Hole, and Australian CPI this week.

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Bond Yields and Iran Dominate a Seesaw Week

Wall Street closed higher on Friday but booked losses for the week as surging bond yields and Iran sanctions fears whipsawed sentiment. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapped three-week winning streaks while the Dow posted its second straight weekly decline. Oil rose for a sixth consecutive session after President Trump threatened sanctions on Iran’s trading partners, and billionaire Ray Dalio warned a US debt crisis could arrive within three years. ASX 200 SPI futures point to a 41-point rise at the Monday open as attention shifts to Nvidia earnings, Jackson Hole, and Australian CPI this week.

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‘Bessent Put’ Fades as Bond Selloff Resumes

Wall Street fell 0.9% as Treasury Secretary Bessent’s bond buyback relief reversed within 24 hours, with 10-year yields pushing above 4.70% and US debt crossing $40 trillion. Oil surged past $93 on Trump’s “economic D-Day” threat against Iran, while Walmart’s worst comparable sales miss in six years rattled consumer confidence. The ASX faces a softer open with futures down 0.3%.

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Stocks Continue to Slide as Investors Notice Rising Bond Yields

A global bond rout pushed the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield to 5.33% — its highest since 2007 — dragging equities lower as the Nasdaq fell 1.3% and semis plunged 5%. Oil prices climbed on the ongoing U.S.–Iran Strait of Hormuz standoff, while U.S. housing starts slumped to a three-and-a-half-year low even as AI-driven factory output hit a four-year high. ASX 200 futures point modestly lower ahead of Q2 wage data, RBA Deputy Governor Hauser, and Thursday’s FOMC minutes.

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Stocks Slip as Oil Tops $90, Iran Truce Expires

US stocks pulled back as oil surged past $90 following the expiry of the US-Iran truce, with 30-year Treasury yields hitting their highest since 2007. The AI investment narrative shifts from “will it pay off?” to “who wins?” as Anthropic’s revenue run rate tops $65 billion. ASX 200 futures point lower ahead of BHP, CSL and Pro Medicus earnings.

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Stocks Mixed on Slowing Consumer

Wall Street dipped from record highs on Friday as US retail sales fell 0.6% and consumer sentiment slid to 51, but the S&P 500 still notched its third straight weekly gain (+0.4%) after soft data slashed September hike odds to 33%. S&P topped 7,800 for the first time. Brent crude surged 5.9% to $88.60 on the Hormuz stalemate, gold rose to $4,374.26, and SPI futures are down 33 points ahead of a monster ASX earnings week.

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