Hormuz Closure Playbook

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Hormuz Closure — Sector Playbook V2
MPC MARKETS
Live Disruption Event
Geopolitical Intelligence · Strait of Hormuz · March 2026

Hormuz Closure
Sector Playbook

Select a closure scenario to see which sectors win, which sectors bleed — and how to position ahead of it.

−93%
Traffic Collapse Since Feb 28
40+ → 2–4
Tankers/Day (Feb → Mar)
~20M → ~1–2M
Barrels/Day (Feb → Mar)
STRUCK
Bandar Abbas Naval Base
DE FACTO
Strait Status — Mar 2026
Select Closure Scenario
DURATION10 Days
OIL+15% to +25%
GLOBAL CPI+0.3% to +0.6%
⚠ MODERATE RISK
▲
Favoured Sectors
▼
Sectors to Avoid
Ground Truth — Traffic Data
AIS · Planet Labs · Kpler Data

Oil Tanker & Naval Traffic: Before vs. After

Late February 2026 → Early March 2026

⚠   LIVE DISRUPTION EVENT — TRAFFIC DOWN ~90–95% — IRINS MAKRAN STRUCK — BANDAR ABBAS BASE DAMAGED   ⚠
BEFORE
Late February 2026
Normal heavy traffic · Dozens of tankers transiting daily · Warships at base
⏱ 24HR TIMELAPSE — FEB 2026
AIS / KPLER · FEB 2026
40+
Tankers transiting daily
~20M
Barrels/day flow
Normal
Naval posture
Open
Strait status
  • 🟢Dense AIS signals throughout both shipping lanes
  • 🟢IRINS Makran & fleet at Bandar Abbas — undamaged, normal position
  • 🟢Tankers transiting freely; war risk premiums near baseline
TODAY — MARCH 2026
Early March 2026
Near-total halt · Tankers jammed, clustered, or diverted · Naval base struck
⏱ 24HR TIMELAPSE — MAR 2026
AIS / KPLER · MAR 2026
2–4
Tankers transiting daily
~1–2M
Barrels/day flow
STRUCK
Bandar Abbas naval base
De Facto
Strait closure
  • 🔴AIS signals near-absent; tankers jammed at Fujairah & Gulf ports
  • 🔴IRINS Makran (Iran's largest vessel) struck, burning — Planet Labs imagery confirmed
  • 🔴Multiple warships damaged; war risk insurance suspended for strait transits
−93%
Traffic Collapse Since Feb 28, 2026
Tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen by an estimated 90–95% since escalation began. The strait — responsible for ~20% of global oil flow — is now operating at near-zero civilian throughput. War risk premiums have spiked to levels not seen since the Iran–Iraq Tanker War of the 1980s. Insurance suspension has compounded the freeze, with most operators unwilling to transit regardless of military status.

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