MPC Markets Morning Call — 11th August 2026: Stocks Churn as Hormuz Standoff Spurs Rally in Oil

The S&P 500 slipped 0.06% to close at 7,753.12 on Monday, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.32% to 26,605.36, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average eased 0.11% to 53,976.04. The modest declines came after the broader market posted its best weekly performance since mid-April, lifted by a strong earnings season — some 85% of the 436 S&P 500 companies that have reported have beaten estimates — a rebound in semiconductor names, and a slide in oil prices that has since reversed. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.39-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and 1.47-to-1 on the Nasdaq.

Energy stocks were the standout winners as the oil-price surge lifted Exxon Mobil (+4.41%) and Chevron (+4.48%). In tech, Microsoft gained 1.21% on reports it would “significantly” increase production of its next-generation AI chips. But semiconductors were mixed: Intel dropped 4.1% after announcing a proposed $15 billion stock offering — its first public share sale since 1971 — to fund AI-related capital expenditure. Nvidia fell 2.9% as the $500 billion AI infrastructure financing deal leaked mid-session before being officially confirmed after the close. Apple lost 1.5% after Jefferies downgraded the stock to underperform, citing supply-chain checks that suggested its planned all-glass iPhone had been cancelled.

“It’s record margins and record earnings. That’s just been the story of this market, and yet the overlay of the Iran conflict just pulls risk sentiment on and then pulls it off,” said Tom Hainlin, investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli noted that Intel’s $15 billion raise “is the latest example of how the AI industry, at least at the present time, is demanding capital far above what companies are generating via operating cash flow, requiring markets to plug the gap — a dynamic that creates risks for the sustainability of the boom.”

Global Stock Indices — Day and 5-Day moves. Nikkei led weekly gains at +4.71%; S&P 500 +0.22% on the week despite Monday’s flat close. All major indices carry “Strong Buy” 1H technicals.

Any residual optimism about an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz evaporated on Monday. Iran ruled out direct talks with the United States, citing alleged violations of the interim peace agreement reached in June, and reiterated its conditions for fully restoring passage through the strait: an end to the U.S. naval blockade, the removal of sanctions, and compensation for war damage. Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said Iran and Oman had yet to finalise a joint statement on the strait’s management framework, which would include mechanisms to monitor vessel passage and collect transit compensation.

President Trump fired back on his Truth Social platform, demanding compensation from Iran “for all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts,” as well as for “the hundreds of thousands of innocent protestors that Iran has killed over the last 50 years, not to mention the 52,000 that have been killed in the last five months.” Axios reported on Sunday that Trump was prepared to allow economic pressure to build on Iran rather than ordering a new military offensive: “We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money,” the president was quoted as saying.

Iran’s parliament has meanwhile approved a management framework for the Strait of Hormuz that would prohibit passage of U.S., Israeli, and other “hostile” vessels through the waterway. The Strait was effectively shuttered months ago, pushing up energy prices and threatening the health of the global economy. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure added a further layer of concern over regional oil flows.

Brent crude surged 4.9% to $87.67 a barrel and WTI jumped 5.1% to $82.15, reversing last week’s 7%+ declines as the collapse in Hormuz diplomacy revived supply-disruption fears. Both contracts had fallen sharply the prior week on assertions from U.S. officials that talks with Iran were progressing, but Tehran’s continuous rejection of Washington’s claims and the parliamentary approval of a framework banning hostile vessels from the strait jolted prices higher. Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure further tightened the supply outlook.

Spot gold reversed earlier losses to climb 0.4% to $4,357.03, hitting a two-month high and extending last week’s 7% surge. UBS maintained a $5,000/oz price target, underpinned by three structural pillars: falling real yields as the Fed eventually eases, dollar softness tied to fiscal and external deficits, and steady central bank buying acting as a price floor. John Murillo, Chief Business Officer of B2Broker, noted: “The real test for the metal is coming from Wednesday with the data on US inflation. If the growth is relatively small, there would be almost no arguments left for tighter policy — I see gold trading closer to $4,400.”

In bonds, the 10-year Treasury yield advanced 6 basis points to 4.70%, Germany’s 10-year rose 5bp to 3.18%, and Britain’s 10-year climbed 7bp to 4.99%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%, with the euro slipping 0.1% to $1.1542 and the yen falling 1% to ¥159.30 per dollar — erasing half the gains from last week’s U.S.–Japan intervention. Bitcoin fell 1.7% to $63,978 and Ether dropped 2.3% to $1,876.

Commodities, Energy & FX — Daily and 5-Day moves. Crude led at +6.60% daily (+8.96% weekly); silver +10.22% on the week; gold +7.57% weekly. AUD flat at −0.20% on the week.

This week’s macro calendar is dominated by Wednesday’s July CPI report, Thursday’s PPI, and Friday’s retail sales data. The closely watched consumer price index is expected to rise 0.1% in July following a 0.4% decline in June, based on the median Bloomberg economist survey. Core CPI is seen at 2.5% — still above the Fed’s 2% target but, as Edwards Asset Management’s Bob Edwards put it, “not that far from the Fed’s 2% goal — it is not victory, but it is progress.”

Last Friday’s July nonfarm payrolls complicated the picture significantly. The U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs — the first negative print since February — primarily due to a fall in local government education roles, while May and June payrolls were collectively revised lower by 103,000. Traders reacted by paring September rate-hike expectations, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 52% probability of a September hike, down meaningfully from the prior week. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack told Yahoo Finance that a number of rate hikes may still be needed to bring inflation to target, but said she did not want to “prejudge what the end point will be.”

ASX 200 futures were down 3 points to 9,178 near 6:05am AEST, pointing to a muted open in line with the flat-to-slightly-lower finish on Wall Street. On the week, the ASX 200 is up 0.95%, with the Australian dollar flat at around −0.20% on the week and the index carrying “Strong Buy” technicals across all timeframes.

The dominant event for Australian markets today is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy statement at 2:30pm AEST, accompanied by the Statement on Monetary Policy. Governor Bullock’s press conference follows at 3:30pm. Earlier, NAB will release its July business confidence and conditions reports at 10:30am AEST. On the corporate front, Life360 (360), Coronado Global Resources (CRN), Helia (HLI), and SGH report on Tuesday.