Federal Reserve rate hike

Bulls vs. Bears

Risk on (?!?!) as Yields Spike

Bond yields exploded, the Nasdaq hit a record, and nobody can explain both at once. The 10-year surged 25 basis points to 5.21% in a single week while Meta’s Muse app drove AI stocks to new highs. Oil whipsawed on Hormuz diplomacy before Houthi missiles pushed Brent back to $106.60. With the RBA set to hike Monday, diesel at record highs, and 924 Australian construction companies in external administration, we break down what matters and where the risks are hiding. Stance: bearish.

MPC Morning Call

Triple-Witching Leaves Wall Street Mixed as 10-Year Returns to 5%

Semiconductors carried the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher on triple-witching Friday as ~$7 trillion in options expired, but the Dow slipped and the 10-year yield climbed back to 5.00%. Weekend Houthi strikes on Riyadh and Iran’s declaration that Hormuz stays closed re-escalated the oil risk into Monday’s Asia open. SPI futures point to a 57-point drop for the ASX.

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