The Nasdaq closed at a record high on Monday, rising 1.1% to 27,477 as mega-cap tech and M&A activity defied a historic bond sell-off. The US 10-year yield touched 5.35% — its highest since 2002 — while BMO warned the 30-year is headed to 6%. Oil fell 2% and the euro slumped to a 17-month low on French fiscal contagion. ASX futures point firmer ahead of the Firmus IPO.
Cooler-than-expected US inflation data slashed October rate hike odds, but a vicious late-session selloff left the Dow down 0.9% and the S&P 500 off 0.25% as long-dated Treasury yields held near multi-decade highs. Micron’s blowout earnings after the bell lit up the AI trade.
US equities closed lower on Monday as Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs — the 10-year touching 5.27%, a fresh 19-year high — and Brent crude held above US$105 on Iran–Strait of Hormuz tensions, with the Dow losing 0.7%, the S&P 500 0.8% and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Gold was smashed 3.6% as surging real yields crushed non-yielding assets, while Nvidia bucked the trend with a record US$150 billion buyback authorisation increase and Boeing tumbled 6.9% on an FAA MAX 10 certification delay. In Australia, SPI futures point to a modestly higher open at 8,727 ahead of today’s RBA decision at 2:30pm AEST, where markets price a 90–95% chance of a 25 bp hike to 4.60%.
Wall Street rebounded Friday — Dow +0.93%, S&P 500 +0.51%, Nasdaq +0.48% — led by AI momentum from Microsoft’s Copilot refresh and Akamai’s $11.6 billion Anthropic deal, as crude oil pulled back on Iran’s seven-day Hormuz reopening proposal. But Trump rejected the deal on Saturday, putting the oil war premium back on the watchlist heading into Monday’s Asia open. The US 10-year yield closed at 5.18% (high 5.23%) with the 30-year topping 5.50% for the first time since 2004. In Australia, the ASX 200 sits at 8,665 — its lowest since June — with SPI futures pointing to a flat Monday open at 8,720, and the RBA board begins deliberations today ahead of Tuesday’s near-certain 25 bp hike to 4.60%.
Chip stocks snap a two-week losing streak on light post-holiday volume. AMD, Broadcom, TSMC all up big — Nvidia lagged on delay rumours. Dow at a record, S&P within 1% of highs. Bitcoin up nearly 10% in five days. Former Japanese currency czar says yen undervalued by 20%. Fed Chair Warsh testifies tonight, first-under-Warsh minutes out Wednesday. ASX news: Lynas, South32, Netwealth, VanEck’s AI ETF. Daily market briefing with Mark Gardner at MPC Markets.