The Nasdaq closed at a record high on Monday, rising 1.1% to 27,477 as mega-cap tech and M&A activity defied a historic bond sell-off. The US 10-year yield touched 5.35% — its highest since 2002 — while BMO warned the 30-year is headed to 6%. Oil fell 2% and the euro slumped to a 17-month low on French fiscal contagion. ASX futures point firmer ahead of the Firmus IPO.
The 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since 2002 before a sharp reversal rescued equities, while oil surged on fresh US troop deployments and China’s fuel-export ban. Russia’s nuclear warning over Kaliningrad and Nvidia’s financing headaches added to a volatile session. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.2% gain as Fed Vice Chair Jefferson signalled patience on hikes.
Cooler-than-expected US inflation data slashed October rate hike odds, but a vicious late-session selloff left the Dow down 0.9% and the S&P 500 off 0.25% as long-dated Treasury yields held near multi-decade highs. Micron’s blowout earnings after the bell lit up the AI trade.
Trump met with AI leaders overnight and renamed AI to “Super Intelligence” — plus they’ll self-regulate. We unpack why that changes nothing. Bond yields hit levels not seen since 2002 (30-year at 5.62%), US consumer confidence collapsed to a 12½-year low, and the RBA hiked to 4.60%. Gold and silver copped a massive sell-off. Phil runs through technical setups on Pro Medicus and 40X. Plus: Micron earnings tomorrow, Aussie CPI today, and US PCE and payrolls on Friday.
US equities closed lower on Monday as Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs — the 10-year touching 5.27%, a fresh 19-year high — and Brent crude held above US$105 on Iran–Strait of Hormuz tensions, with the Dow losing 0.7%, the S&P 500 0.8% and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Gold was smashed 3.6% as surging real yields crushed non-yielding assets, while Nvidia bucked the trend with a record US$150 billion buyback authorisation increase and Boeing tumbled 6.9% on an FAA MAX 10 certification delay. In Australia, SPI futures point to a modestly higher open at 8,727 ahead of today’s RBA decision at 2:30pm AEST, where markets price a 90–95% chance of a 25 bp hike to 4.60%.
Bond yields exploded, the Nasdaq hit a record, and nobody can explain both at once. The 10-year surged 25 basis points to 5.21% in a single week while Meta’s Muse app drove AI stocks to new highs. Oil whipsawed on Hormuz diplomacy before Houthi missiles pushed Brent back to $106.60. With the RBA set to hike Monday, diesel at record highs, and 924 Australian construction companies in external administration, we break down what matters and where the risks are hiding. Stance: bearish.
Will they actually slow down AI? Dario Amodei, Sam Altman and Elon Musk say we should pace AI development — but we’re not buying it. The three leaders of the AI race all agreeing on regulation? Smells like incumbents pulling up the drawbridge.
Oil smashed through $100 this week as Strait of Hormuz traffic collapsed to single digits. The S&P dropped four sessions straight, the ECB hiked, PPI came in hot, and the 10-year yield is staring down 5%. Oracle beat big after hours, GPT-6 Astra crushed software stocks, and rate hike odds climbed to 73%. We’re bearish until October 11. Inside: the full week breakdown, our cheque cashers vs cheque writers thesis, copper at record highs, the ASX energy and gold miner plays we’re backing, and why CPI on Friday could reshape the second half of 2026.
Brent crude surged above $100 a barrel as U.S. strikes on five Iranian tankers triggered retaliatory attacks across the Persian Gulf, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.85%. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% while a disappointing $6 billion Treasury buyback deepened the bond sell-off. ASX 200 futures point to a 1% drop as markets await Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI for Fed rate hike clarity.
Wall Street posted a second straight week of gains as markets shrugged off a fresh round of US strikes on Iran and Tehran’s declaration that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. SK Hynix surged 13% on its record $26.5 billion Nasdaq debut while the RBA flagged rising default risks across Australia’s $250 billion private credit sector.
Chip stocks snap a two-week losing streak on light post-holiday volume. AMD, Broadcom, TSMC all up big — Nvidia lagged on delay rumours. Dow at a record, S&P within 1% of highs. Bitcoin up nearly 10% in five days. Former Japanese currency czar says yen undervalued by 20%. Fed Chair Warsh testifies tonight, first-under-Warsh minutes out Wednesday. ASX news: Lynas, South32, Netwealth, VanEck’s AI ETF. Daily market briefing with Mark Gardner at MPC Markets.
Equities moved higher overnight after President Donald Trump denied reports that he was close to firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.