US 10-year yield

MPC Morning Call

Wall Street Stumbles as Yields Hit 19-Year Highs and Oil Stays Firm

US equities closed lower on Monday as Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs — the 10-year touching 5.27%, a fresh 19-year high — and Brent crude held above US$105 on Iran–Strait of Hormuz tensions, with the Dow losing 0.7%, the S&P 500 0.8% and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Gold was smashed 3.6% as surging real yields crushed non-yielding assets, while Nvidia bucked the trend with a record US$150 billion buyback authorisation increase and Boeing tumbled 6.9% on an FAA MAX 10 certification delay. In Australia, SPI futures point to a modestly higher open at 8,727 ahead of today’s RBA decision at 2:30pm AEST, where markets price a 90–95% chance of a 25 bp hike to 4.60%.

MPC Morning Call

Stocks Grind Higher as Geopolitics Weighs

Wall Street rebounded Friday — Dow +0.93%, S&P 500 +0.51%, Nasdaq +0.48% — led by AI momentum from Microsoft’s Copilot refresh and Akamai’s $11.6 billion Anthropic deal, as crude oil pulled back on Iran’s seven-day Hormuz reopening proposal. But Trump rejected the deal on Saturday, putting the oil war premium back on the watchlist heading into Monday’s Asia open. The US 10-year yield closed at 5.18% (high 5.23%) with the 30-year topping 5.50% for the first time since 2004. In Australia, the ASX 200 sits at 8,665 — its lowest since June — with SPI futures pointing to a flat Monday open at 8,720, and the RBA board begins deliberations today ahead of Tuesday’s near-certain 25 bp hike to 4.60%.

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