us/iRAN cONFLICT tRACKER

Take a Look at Mosaic

Ausbiz Only - Get a Month Free


US–Iran Ceasefire Intelligence Brief | MPC Markets
Dark
☀️

US–Iran Ceasefire — Intelligence Brief

08 April 2026 · 10:30 AEST · Geopolitical Intelligence

⚡ War Not Over Islamabad: 10 Apr 2-Week Pause
⚠
This is NOT a ceasefire — it is a 2-week operational pause
Iran has agreed to suspend "defensive operations" only while negotiations proceed in Islamabad. Fighting resumes if talks fail. Iran frames this as negotiating from a position of strength, not concession.
Events as they happened
Ceasefire Timeline — 6–8 April 2026 (AEST)
MON 6 APR · 10:00
Trump Sets
48-Hr Deadline
Trump Issues Ultimatum
Trump formally demands Iran comply within 48 hours, threatening devastating strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. The conflict was entering its sixth consecutive week.
TUE 7 APR · 05:00
"A Civilisation
Will Die Tonight"
Escalation Warning
"A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again… I don't want that to happen, but it probably will." — Trump, Truth.Social, hours before his own deadline.
WED 8 APR · 05:30
🇵🇰 Pakistan
Proposes Pause
Pakistan Mediation
PM Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir propose a 2-week extension hours before the deadline. Sharif requests Iran open the Strait of Hormuz as a goodwill gesture.
WED 8 APR · 08:00
Trump Accepts
Suspension
Trump Suspends Strikes
Trump announces via Truth.Social he will hold off on planned strikes. Key condition: Iran must achieve "complete, immediate and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz." S&P 500 futures +2%, WTI −13% to $86.21/bbl.
WED 8 APR · 09:30
Iran: "Tentative
Ceasefire"
Iran Confirms Pause + 10-Point Plan
FM Aragchi confirms Iran will cease "defensive operations." Iran says the US has accepted its 10-point plan "in general." Iran claims victory after 40 days. War is NOT over.
FRI 10 APR · UPCOMING
🇵🇰 Islamabad
Talks Begin
Formal Negotiations
Talks begin Friday 10 April 2026 in Islamabad. Duration: up to 2 weeks, extendable. Iran's goal: convert military gains into a binding political agreement on its 10-point terms.
↑ Hover each event for full detail
Equities · After-Hours
S&P 500 Futures
+2.0%
On Trump's acceptance post
Energy · Futures
WTI Crude Oil
−13%
To $86.21/bbl — Hormuz re-open signal
Key Supply Chokepoint
Strait of Hormuz
~20% of global oil
Primary flashpoint of the conflict
Three-way dynamics
Party Positions as of 8 April 2026
🇺🇸
United States
Iran's plan is a "workable basis" — not accepted as-is
Will negotiate over 2 weeks in Islamabad
Hormuz must open completely & immediately
Has previously backed down at eleventh hour
🇮🇷
Iran
Claims battlefield victory after 40 days
"Our hands are on the trigger"
Talks only to convert military wins into political terms
Will resume fighting if talks fail
🇮🇱
Israel
Formally accepted 2-week pause per White House
Highly skeptical — no real ceasefire expected
No response to Iran's 10-point demands
Strongly against Hezbollah/Resistance Axis demands
Iran's negotiating demands
Iran's 10-Point Plan — Probability of Agreement (hover for detail)
01No attacks on Iran + security guarantees
US/Israel may offer verbal assurances, but iron-clad permanent guarantees are extremely hard to secure, particularly with Israel wanting to preserve military options.
35%
02Permanent end to the war — not just a pause
Trump agreed to a 2-week suspension. Both the US and Israel prefer a temporary pause. Iran demands permanence — a fundamental structural gap.
25%
03End all attacks on Hezbollah / Resistance Axis
Israel has explicitly stated it intends to continue operations against Iranian allies. Directly conflicts with Israeli strategic objectives. Near-impossible ask.
15%
04Full US military withdrawal from region
Extremely unlikely. The US maintains strategic bases across the entire Middle East. A maximalist demand unlikely to appear in any final agreement text.
10%
05Iran coordinates Strait of Hormuz passage
Highest probability. Both sides need Hormuz open — ~20% of global oil flows through it. Trump made this his explicit key condition for the suspension.
60%
06Transit fee ~$2M/ship for reconstruction
Possible in watered-down form — lower fee or shared mechanism. The US and Gulf states are wary of giving Iran a direct revenue stream, but some arrangement may emerge.
40%
07Lift all primary and secondary sanctions
Partial relief is far more likely than full removal. Full lifting requires major Iranian nuclear concessions not currently on the table.
30%
08Release all frozen Iranian assets abroad
Moderately possible. Asset releases have occurred in prior deals (JCPOA). Could be deployed quickly as a "carrot" to keep Iran at the table.
45%
09Full war compensation / reconstruction support
Very low probability. Neither the US nor Israel is expected to pay direct reparations. Indirect support via sanctions relief may be framed as a proxy.
20%
10Binding UN Security Council resolution
Possible for parts of a final deal. A full resolution covering US withdrawal or Resistance Axis issues faces veto risks from the US in the Security Council.
25%
Analytical assessment
Outlook
✓ Best Chances
▸Point 5 — Strait of Hormuz coordination
▸Point 8 — Partial frozen asset release (JCPOA precedent)
▸Point 6 — Transit / reconstruction fee mechanism
▸Non-attack agreement for Iranian territory during talks
✗ Near-Impossible
▸Point 4 — Full US military withdrawal from region
▸Point 3 — End all ops against Hezbollah / Resistance Axis
▸Point 7 — Lift all primary & secondary sanctions
▸Point 9 — Direct war reparations / reconstruction
Scenario Probability Matrix
Islamabad Outcome
⚠ MPC Markets analytical estimate only · Not a verified intelligence assessment · Not financial advice
Talks Collapse — War Resumes
35%
Iran's maximalist demands clash directly with US/Israeli red lines. High risk of breakdown if Hezbollah or withdrawal demands are pressed.
Partial Deal (Hormuz + Sanctions Relief)
30%
Pragmatic compromise on Hormuz access, partial asset release and limited sanctions relief. Most likely "deal" scenario.
Hormuz-Only Agreement
25%
Narrow technical deal on Hormuz passage only. Other issues deferred or unresolved. Fragile — liable to collapse quickly.
Full 10-Point Agreement
10%
Iran gets most of its 10 demands in binding form. Requires historic US concessions — possible only under extreme political pressure.
⚠ Methodology: Probabilities derived from structural conflict between Iran's demands and US/Israeli red lines, JCPOA precedent, and the critical framing gap — Trump calls Iran's plan a "workable basis" while Iran claims the US has "accepted" it. This divergence is the single largest risk factor for talks collapse. These are MPC Markets analytical starting points only, not verified intelligence or financial forecasts.
MPC Markets · Iran Conflict Tracker
🔴 DEADLINE 8PM ET DEADLINE PASSED — No confirmed deal as of report time. Trump: "8pm is happening." "A whole civilization will die tonight." Outcome evolving — post-deadline strikes not yet confirmed
🔴 ESCALATION PRE-DEADLINE PEAK — IDF destroyed 8 bridge segments (Tehran, Karaj, Tabriz, Kashan, Qom) + Kharg Island dozens of strikes + Iran rail network + Shiraz sonar facility. Hegseth: "highest strikes since beginning"
🔴 ESCALATION IRAN POWER GRID HIT — US/IDF struck power transmission lines in Alborz Province (west of Tehran). Karaj outages. IRGC called youth to form human chains around power plants
⚠ ESCALATION SABIC JUBAIL HIT — Iranian drones struck SABIC petrochemical complex in Jubail, Saudi Arabia. Explosions + fire. One of world's largest petrochemical hubs. Saudi Arabia directly targeted
🟡 DIPLOMACY ISLAMABAD ACCORD — Pakistan-mediated 2-phase framework: 45-day ceasefire → 15–20 days to permanent deal. NYT: Iran stopped engaging. Polymarket ceasefire-by-Apr-30: ~27% and falling
⚠ ESCALATION VANCE: "tools not yet used" — VP Vance hints at desalination, oil infra, nuclear-adjacent. Trump: "whole civilization will die tonight." Iran: 14M volunteers; human chains at power plants
OIL Brent ~$110–112/bbl; WTI above $112. S&P 500 -0.5%; DJIA -0.4%; Nasdaq -0.6% futures. US gasoline ~$4.12/gal (+$1 since war start). +50% crude since Feb 28
IRAN WAR — STRIKE MAP
Mar 11–Apr 7, 2026 · Verified attack locations
US & Israeli airstrikes
Iran & proxy strikes
500 km
⊙ natural earth
Daily Attack Events — US/Israel vs. Iran + Proxies (Mar 11–Apr 7, 2026)
Launched vs. successful strikes per day. Avgs: US/Israel ~216/day · Iran+Proxies ~81/day. Mar 29 = 701 (HRANA peak). Apr 5 = WSO CSAR op + Bahrain/AbuDhabi retaliation + Bushehr/Mahshahr. ⚠ UNVERIFIED ↑ APR 6
US/Israel Avg
Iran+Proxies Avg
US/Israel Launched
US/Israel Success
Iran+Proxies Launched
Iran+Proxies Success
228
🇺🇸 US/Israel avg/day
Mar 11–Apr 7
6,376 total launches. 13,000+ targets since Feb 28. Peak: 701 on Mar 29. Hegseth: "highest strikes since beginning."
87
🇮🇷 Iran+Proxies avg/day
Mar 11–Apr 7
2,436 total. 798 BMs + 1,628 drones (ISW-CTP Apr 1). SABIC Jubail drone strike. Cluster munitions Sharon Plain. Hezbollah 60-80/day.
410
🇺🇸 US/Israel last 24h
▲▲ PEAK (avg 228)
Apr 7: 8 bridges destroyed. Kharg Island dozens of strikes. 3 airports hit. Shiraz sonar facility. Power grid Alborz Province. Multi-city overnight wave.
140
🇮🇷 Iran+Proxies last 24h
▲ Above avg (87)
Apr 7: SABIC Jubail drone strike (Saudi Arabia). Cluster munitions Sharon Plain + central Israel. Multi-wave BMs. IRGC "new Gulf order" threat.
Strait of Hormuz — Traffic & Oil Flow (28 Feb–7 Apr 2026)
Pre-war baseline: 138 vessels/day · 60 tankers/day · 20M bbl/day  |  Sources: J.P. Morgan · Lloyd's List · Windward · Kpler · JMIC · Gulf Business · EIA
Baseline (138/day)
Total Vessels
Tankers
Cum. Oil Lost (000s bbl)
Days to Normalise (right axis)
37.6
Days to Normal Supply
Full days at pre-war flow (20M bbl/day) needed to offset cumulative deficit if Hormuz reopened today (as of 7 Apr 2026). ⚠ Trump 8PM ET deadline PASSED — no deal confirmed. IRGC: Hormuz "will never return to former status."
751.2M
Bbls lost (000s)
3.6%
Vessels vs baseline
$110–112
Brent crude
~20k
Seafarers stranded
US Troop Buildup — Week-on-Week Change (Cumulative)
CENTCOM AOR + IDF Lebanon divisions  |  Sources: CENTCOM, NYT, Reuters, Fox News, Al Jazeera, Times of Israel
US Total (AOR)
IDF Est. Troops (Lebanon)
Escalation Level (right)
Week 6 (Apr 7): 50,000–57,500 US + 50,000 IDF (5 divs in S. Lebanon) · 8 bridge segments destroyed (Tehran, Karaj, Tabriz, Kashan, Qom) · Kharg Island dozens of strikes · 3 airports hit · Shiraz sonar facility destroyed · Power grid struck (Alborz) · SABIC Jubail hit (Saudi)  |  Carriers: 2 active + GHW Bush inbound  |  ⚠ Trump energy 8PM ET DEADLINE PASSED — no deal confirmed. Hegseth: "highest strikes since beginning." Vance: "tools not yet used"  |  Escalation: ■ 5/5 — Full wartime footing · DEADLINE PASSED · OUTCOME UNCONFIRMED · BINARY EVENT TODAY
Sources: ISW/AEI CTP · CENTCOM · HRANA · AP · Reuters · NYT · Al Jazeera · Times of Israel · Wikipedia 2026 Iran war · J.P. Morgan · Lloyd's List · Windward · Kpler · EIA · CBS News · Air & Space Forces Mag · Axios · Fox News · BBC · The Aviationist · The War Zone · ABC News · ABC Australia · Newsweek · WSJ · IAEA · CIA · TRT World · DW Liveblog · CBC · NPR · Washington Post · ICRC · CNN · PBS · Bloomberg · CNBC · LA Times · NBC News · Polymarket  |  As of 8 April 2026 ~06:40 AEST  |  Not financial advice. Post-deadline outcome not yet confirmed.
Bloomberg

Featured on

Item 1
item2
Item 3
Item 4
Item 5
Item 6
Item 7
Item 8
Item 9
Item 10
Item 11

Trusted by investors, everywhere

Need Help with your portfolio?

Limiting your losses is just as important as making profits. Our experienced team of ex-traders and portfolio managers can help.

Experience

Our team knows your pain, they have lived it! Get advice from someone who's been there.

Risk Management

We don't just push out buy recommendations, we also tell you when you need to sell. Don't panic, set a plan!

Buy Wisely

Drops in the market are also an opportunity, take advantage when others are panicking.

Copyright © 2026 MPC Markets Pty. Ltd., All rights reserved​ | ACN: 668 234 562 | AFSL: 296877

Share this:

Scroll to Top