Strait of Hormuz

MPC Morning Call

Stocks Continue Slide as Oil Tops $100

Brent crude surged above $100 a barrel as U.S. strikes on five Iranian tankers triggered retaliatory attacks across the Persian Gulf, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.85%. The S&P 500 fell 0.5% while a disappointing $6 billion Treasury buyback deepened the bond sell-off. ASX 200 futures point to a 1% drop as markets await Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI for Fed rate hike clarity.

MPC Morning Call

Stocks lower as Iran Escalates Oil Spikes Higher

Wall Street sold off to close out August as fresh US airstrikes on Iran and tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz sent WTI crude surging 5.9% to $90.82 a barrel. The S&P 500 fell 0.71% to 7,631.47 while the Nasdaq dropped 1.03% to 26,099.77, dragged by a 2.1% slide in semiconductor stocks. Bond yields spiked across the globe, with the US 10-year hitting 4.79% and Japan’s 10-year breaching 3% for the first time since 1996. ASX 200 futures point to a weaker open, down 79 points.

MPC Morning Call

Stocks Drift Lower as Iran Escalates

Wall Street ended lower on Monday as renewed US–Iran military strikes sent Brent crude surging above $90 and pushed Treasury yields to their highest since January 2025. Despite the pullback, US stocks closed August with gains — the S&P 500 up 2.6% and Nasdaq up 3.9%. Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech has markets pricing a 64% chance of a September rate hike, with Friday’s nonfarm payrolls the key swing factor.

MPC Morning Call

Stocks Lower as Warsh Talk Tough on Inflation

Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole debut sent two-year yields surging 12 basis points and rate-hike odds above 50% for September. Wall Street slipped with the S&P 500 down 0.25% to 7,711.76, while a U.S. strike on Iranian launchers at Larak Island kept the geopolitical risk premium elevated and ASX futures point to a weaker Monday open at 9,009.

MPC Morning Call

Tech Higher as Jensen Delivers

Nvidia’s blockbuster $92 billion quarter and 70% forward growth guidance carried Wall Street higher on Thursday, with the Nasdaq surging 1.6% even as every other S&P 500 sector declined. Core PCE inflation held stubbornly at 3.3%, keeping rate hike expectations alive ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote on Friday.

MPC Morning Call

Software Stocks & Nvidia Beat

Wall Street traded flat as July PCE inflation came in hotter than expected at 3.7%, reinforcing bets the Fed will hold rates in September. After the bell, Nvidia’s revenue more than doubled to $96.2 billion but a lower-than-hoped margin guide sent shares down 2%, while Salesforce and CrowdStrike both surged 12% on strong outlooks.

MPC Morning Call

Stocks to Open Lower as Hormuz Shuts Again

Wall Street posted a second straight week of gains as markets shrugged off a fresh round of US strikes on Iran and Tehran’s declaration that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. SK Hynix surged 13% on its record $26.5 billion Nasdaq debut while the RBA flagged rising default risks across Australia’s $250 billion private credit sector.

MPC Morning Call

Chips Rally as Markets Shrug Off Iran Strikes

A chip-led rebound powered Wall Street higher as the S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 7,541.83 and the Nasdaq surged 1.3%, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index clawing back more than 5% over two sessions. SK Hynix priced its record $26.5 billion U.S. ADR debut while crude pulled back sharply after Trump said Iran wanted a deal. SPI futures point to a flat ASX open at 8,741.

MPC Morning Call

War On, Risk Off: Stocks Drop

Trump declared the U.S.–Iran ceasefire “over” at the NATO summit in Ankara as the military launched a second day of strikes, sending Brent crude surging 5.9% to $78.55 after briefly topping $80. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% while the Nasdaq eked out a 0.2% gain on a chip rebound after China signalled it would allow AI firms to buy Nvidia H200s. Fed minutes revealed an evenly split committee on rate hikes, and ASX 200 futures point to a 49-point drop at the open.

Education, MacroTrends

MPC Monthly Markets June 2026

June was a month of contradictions — semiconductors surged 106% YTD on relentless AI capex, SpaceX’s record IPO whipsawed retail investors, and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh killed forward guidance cold. The Iran peace deal holds for now, but July’s nuclear talks could reset everything.

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